Today (3/15/17) Fox News released findings of its latest favorability survey: Bernie Sanders still outperforms every other politician covered by the poll, which Fox News revisits every few months.
In this latest poll of some 1,000 registered Democratic, Republican and Independent voters reached in mid-March, 61 percent see Sanders favorably. By contrast, only 44 percent of respondents view Donald Trump favorably.
What about "net favorability"? (That's the favorable minus unfavorable score.) Sanders again trumps the field with a 29-point net positive. Our illegitimate president — a White House squatter who lost the popular vote by 2.9 million votes cast — now scores a net favorablilty of minus 9.
A year ago, during the presidential primaries, over 150 poll results tallied here at BernieWorks.com clearly predicted today's favorability scores. Sanders was trouncing Trump then, and he's trouncing him now.
Obviously this is not a beauty or charm contest: Sanders lacks both. It's about his "walk the walk," no-nonsense, no-bull integrity (can you imagine anyone more the opposite of Trump?). And his solid progressive policies (ditto).
These are why Bernie Sanders is America's most popular politician.
Thank You, Mr Trump!
Dear Mr Trump:
We at BernieWorks.com view your ascension as an exhilarating opportunity. It's time for all decent folks — tens of millions — to crank up Bernie Sanders' progressive political revolution for real.
It takes a grain of sand to be an irritant, causing an oyster to create a pearl. You are that irritant, Mr. Trump. Thank you for your service.
Though everyone is breathlessly talking about you, please remember: you are nothing but a grain of sand. Put another way, this is really not about you, it's about us.
Switching metaphors. . .
Vaccines generate a healthy response by revving up the body's immune system.
Perhaps a bracing dose of you, Mr Trump, with your seedy following of hatemongers and corrupt cronies, will finally stir up the body politic. Time to strongly reject the gradual attacks that both major parties have made on millions of American families over the past 40 years, crippling us like a chronic wasting disease. Enough is enough.
You could be the inoculation we have needed. Perhaps only someone as noxious as you could finally generate a healthy, overwhelming immune response.
It speaks poorly of our nation and people that we let things get this bad before mounting a massive response, like someone with a weak immune system.
But at least it's happening. We hope.
So regardless of what we think of you, Mr Trump, we can think of ourselves as a humble part of the body politic's immune system at long last kicking into high gear.
A pearl, a healthy body politic — whichever view you prefer, the opportunity is ours now.
In aikido, they say an adversary's attack is his gift to you. You have given us this precious gift, Mr Trump.
It's up to us to use it. Or lose it.
Arguably, the four saddest words in the English language are, "We told you so."
During the 2016 Democratic primaries, clues everywhere pointed to Hillary Clinton being a shockingly weak candidate against the GOP.
More than 150 polls matched Sanders and Clinton, respectively, against various GOP contenders. Sanders outperformed Clinton 90 percent of the time.
Some of Clinton's results were troubling. She lost where she should have won.
There was no secret about any of this. All the information was there, readily accessed.
BernieWorks.com made it even easier by tallying these poll results for anyone who cared about evidence versus wishful fantasy. "There are none so blind as those who will not see." —John Heywood, 1546
As a result, many well-meaning voters said, "I like Bernie, but I'm voting for Hillary because she's more electable" — an irony that yesterday's general election results transformed into tragic irony.
To everyone who chose Clinton over Sanders in the primaries, knowing — knowing — he was the better choice: one might reasonably say, you are responsible for a reality-show blowhard being elected President of the United States.
This is a teachable moment.
1. Pay attention to evidence. Please.
2. Never, ever settle again for the lesser of two evils. Fight for better. Demand it.
3. Use the triumph of Trump as the defining moment in which a progressive political revolution really does sweep America — with you actively participating.
As we said, a teachable moment.
• Two-week tally, May 14-28: Sanders undefeated against Trump.
• Against all odds, Sanders scores 92% winning streak with 1 tie.
• Clinton loses 9 times to Trump, winning barely more than half her matchups.
Setting the stage:
• In early May, GOP contenders quit the GOP race, leaving Trump triumphant.
• Corporate media prematurely anointed Clinton as the presumptive Dem nominee.
• By doing so, pundits and media — Very Serious People — sought to make Sanders irrelevant.
To his credit, Sanders refuses to be, uh, irrelevented.
By now Clinton was supposed to be dominating Trump in matchup polls and Sanders losing steam.
The opposite is true. Clinton is failing and Sanders is whipping the ascendant Trump left and right.
In the past two weeks, May 14-28, Sanders and Clinton faced Trump in 13 voter surveys by NBC, CBS, Fox, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and other organizations. These polls essentially asked voters, "If the race were Sanders vs Trump, who would you pick? What about Clinton vs Trump?"
Sanders beat Trump in 12 of these 13 polls and tied 1. His average victory margin: nearly 10 points.
In electoral terms, his strength and durability is looking more and more like Iron Man.
But Clinton struggled. She lost 5 polls against Trump, winning just 8. That is not acceptable for someone who must lead her party to victory and keep the White House out of GOP hands.
The bad news doesn't end there. Clinton's performance is actually worse than it appears.
NOTE: During the past two weeks Clinton also faced Trump in polls that excluded Sanders. Normally we do not tally such polls because we can't compare Clinton's and Sanders' performance poll by poll, apples to apples. However, we are now going to start making exceptions, sacrificing some comparability to give you a broader picture with more data.
Including polls that ignored Sanders, Clinton faced Trump a total of 22 times in the past two weeks. She lost 9 of these polls, winning 12 and tying 1.
Thus while Sanders had a 92% winning percentage with a 9.5-point average spread, Clinton won only 55% of her polls with an average spread of just 1.6 points, less than the margin of error. Virtual dead heats.
Nearly half of Sanders' polls (6 of 13) had wins in the double digits. The same was true of only about 1/7th of Clinton's polls (3 of 22).
With Clinton's 55% wins, the November race against Trump would amount to a coin toss.
If these performance trends continue, ask yourself: Should Democrats nominate Iron Man Sanders or Coin-Toss Clinton to lock the GOP out of the White House?
• Ten-day tally of matchup polls: Sanders wins big, Clinton loses big.
• Sanders wins 11 against Trump, loses 1.
• Clinton wins 6 against Trump, loses 6.
Data source: RealClearPolitics.com
It's time for Dems, especially superdelegates, to switch to the winningest candidate against the GOP. That would be Sanders.
In the past ten days, 5/10 to today (5/19), pollsters have published results of a dozen "paired matchups" between Sanders and Trump and, in the same polls, between Clinton and Trump.
Sanders continues his strong performance against the GOP, winning more than 90 percent of the time — consistent with his aggregate results over the past 2-3 months.
Clinton is now doing even worse than her mediocre long-term performance against the GOP. In the past ten days she lost half the time, scoring 6 wins, 6 losses. 50-50, just like a coin toss.
That's why we now call the prematurely presumptive Dem nominee "Coin-Toss Clinton." But it's actually worse than it looks.
Voter surveys typically have a margin of error between 2% and 4%. Yet some matchups are won or lost by a single percentage point. Thus we sometimes take a second look at tallies, counting any 1-point margins as "virtual ties."
Recounting the past ten days, Sanders had 10 clear wins, 1 loss and 1 virtual tie in which he won a matchup by a single point.
Clinton had 4 clear wins plus 6 losses and 2 virtual ties. By this counting, Clinton failed to win a shocking two-thirds of her matchup polls against Trump — 'way below coin-toss territory.
Someone will have to explain why the Dems seem bent on nominating such a consistent loser when there's a winning candidate who has 30+ years of government leadership experience, acts like an adult, and holds consistent policy positions.
A word about those consistent positions: Sanders' positions don't flip every few years because (a) they're guided by his strong moral compass, b) they're backed by his integrity, and (c) Sanders relentlessly supports the public interest and justice for ordinary folks. These things don't change.
Is Sanders perfect? Of course not. But no one else comes remotely close to his quality as a leader.
That is why this no-nonsense 74-year-old guy attracts crowds of 10, 20, 30,000 people who go absolutely nuts for his authenticity and his commonsense public-interest policies — which they crave and cannot find in any other major candidate.
• Over 500 Dem superdelegates have prematurely declared for Clinton.
• Superdelegates can switch. Fairness won't prompt them, but fear might — fear of losing.
• Action needed: Show overwhelming evidence that only Sanders can beat Trump.
Progressive advocates protest rules that give "superdelegates" undemocratic power over the Dem nominating process.
Sanders folks cry foul, and they're right. Democratic Party rules are rigged to let party insiders control the nomination.
"I don't care who does the electing, so long as I get to do the nominating."
Meanwhile, Sanders supporters urge the Dems to assign superdelegates proportional to his wins in 19 states (and counting). While fair and rational, this appeal will go nowhere. Most superdelegates likely feel it's their duty to support Clinton, the 'presumptive' nominee.
So, what might penetrate the "Hillary bubble" surrounding these superdelegates, the Party faithful? What might drive a wedge? Pry open their minds just a crack to consider a different possibility?
The answer: FEAR.
Fear of losing in November. No one wants to be responsible for losing the White House in 2016. It's the FUD factor: fear, uncertainty, doubt.
So how do we inject fear? Uncertainty? Doubt? We use evidence. We spotlight results of dozens upon dozens of voter surveys that pit Sanders against Trump and Clinton against Trump.
Taken together, this consistent evidence reveals in starkest terms how strong Sanders is — and how frighteningly weak Clinton is against the GOP.
Before other GOP contenders quit, Sanders outperformed Clinton against all of them. Without exception. You'll find aggregated data at BernieWorks.com.
One more thing. While Clinton is performing poorly against Trump, she did even worse against the other GOP crazies.
Thus superdelegates must ask themselves:
Can the Party afford a candidate whose performance against the GOP amounts to a coin toss?
Are we willing to bet the Party and the White House on a coin toss?
How frightening is that? How much risk must we tolerate and uncertainty must we bear to keep blindly supporting a failed leader?
Is supporting "Coin-Toss Clinton" a bridge too far?
...Especially when there's a stronger, straight-up candidate who's beating Trump left and right — and winning hearts and minds like no one else.
All 500+ superdelegates who have prematurely declared for Clinton now face this agonizing question. It's something to lose sleep over.
We hope that fear, uncertainty and doubt haunt their troubled dreams...until they do the smart thing, the safe thing, and switch to Sanders.
*We tally matchup polls published at RealClearPolitics.com — all the polls that match up both Sanders and Clinton against the GOP. This method helps ensure a meaningful comparison of electoral strength, i.e., "electability." Wins, losses and point spreads were recorded for each candidate in a given poll, using the same sampling, surveying the same voters and asking the same questions in the same span of days. In other words, apples to apples.
In 12 matchups against Trump published so far in May (5/1 - 5/15):
• Sanders beat Trump 9 times and lost 3. Winning percentage: 75%.
• Clinton beat Trump 7 times, lost 5. Winning percentage: 58%.
Data source: RealClearPolitics.com
Some matchups were won or lost by just 1 point. If we call these "virtual ties," then:
• Sanders beat Trump 9 times, lost 2 and had 1 virtual tie — winning 75%.
• Clinton beat Trump 5 times, lost 5 and had 2 virtual ties — winning 42%.
Sanders' performance in these May matchups is remarkable. Consider: Trump is his party's presumptive nominee, while Sanders has been written off by establishment Dems and corporate media.
Against these ridiculous odds, voters still choose Sanders over Trump 3 times out of 4 — earning Sanders the "hooray" in our headline.
Contrast Sanders' buoyant performance to that of the Dems' prematurely presumptive nominee, Hillary Clinton.
By now, Clinton should be whipping Trump in every matchup poll. Isn't that why voters picked her in primary races — to stop GOP crazies from gaining the White House? That is why many people said, "I like Bernie, but I'm going to hold my nose and vote for Hillary — because she's more electable."
Well, how's that workin' out for ya?
With the best of intentions, these primary voters picked the weaker candidate. How weak? How about a winning record of 58% so far this month against Trump? Or 42% if we ignore 1-point "virtual ties"? Is that weak enough for you?
We do understand: with the best of intentions, voters can make mistakes. But this one's a doozy.
The stakes are staggeringly high. The Dems must lock out Trump and defeat the GOP.
Clinton's consistently dismal numbers against the GOP for the past 2-3 months — totaling well over 100 matchups tallied here at BernieWorks.com — clearly show that she is the wrong person for this mission.
And now, Clinton's May numbers against Trump go from "dismal" to "frightening."
There's a longshot chance of correcting this disastrous choice. Voters in the eight remaining primary states plus D.C. could keep Clinton from having a lock on the nomination before the Dem convention.
It would take a massive pro-Sanders vote — improbable but not impossible if everyone were to realize how weak a candidate Clinton really is. And how remarkably strong Sanders has proven to be, even now.
Thanks to Sanders, no one needs to hold their nose and vote for an establishment candidate they don't like. They can vote for the one they like and admire — who also is the strongest contender and the safest bet to beat the GOP.
So if you know anyone who lives in an upcoming primary state, please do your part. Let them know the truth. Refer them to the overwhelming evidence on this site or elsewhere. They don't have to hold their nose.
You'll be doing a great thing for your family and our nation.
• Sanders wins 80% of his matchups vs GOP over the past 30 days.
• Clinton wins just 49% of her matchups – in same polls, during the same period.
• Sanders' average point spread: 11.5 points. Clinton's? 4.9 points.
Data source: RealClearPolitics.com
Disaster for Dems:
Many well-meaning voters still don't see that Sanders is much stronger than Clinton versus the GOP. Unless they see the truth, many will hold their nose and vote for Clinton in remaining primaries, believing she is more electable.
It's up to you to show them the truth. It's an enormous responsibility. You didn't ask for it, but it falls to you anyway.
People's disastrously false belief about electability places a hundred million US families at risk of suffering years more crony capitalism. You can help change that by relentlessly spreading the truth over the next three weeks of remaining primaries.
• In the past 30 days, since April 13, major polls have matched up Sanders against GOP contenders 51 times.*
• Sanders beat his GOP opponents in 41 of these matchups (= 80%). He lost only 4 times.
• The remaining 6 were statistical dead heats, meaning the outcome was smaller than the poll's margin of error.
• In the same period – in the same polls, which queried the same voters – Clinton faced her GOP opponents 51 times.
• Clinton won only 49 percent of her matchups — a shocking performance when the US presidency hangs in the balance.
• Clinton managed a clear win in only 25 of 51 matchups. She lost 17 times outright, a full third of her matchups — a frightening outcome.
• In the remaining 9 matchups, she managed a statistical dead heat, essentially tying her opponent.
Remarkably, Sanders continues to outperform Clinton in matchups against the GOP as recently as this week — even after mainstream media anointed Clinton "the presumptive nominee." This alone shows incredible electoral strength, far beyond what anyone might expect.
Please get the word out. The more people in upcoming primary states who know the truth, the more momentum Sanders and the progressive revolution will have going into the Dem convention. Thank you.
Upcoming primary states:
5/17 — Kentucky, Oregon
6/7 — California, New Jersey, Montana, New Mexico, North and South Dakota
6/14 — Washington D.C.
*Polling organizations included Cruz and Kasich until they quit their respective races. We think their matchups are still relevant (a) as an overall indicator of Sanders' and Clinton's relative electoral strength, and (b) as a backup in case Trump somehow fails to get the GOP nod (which his party is desperately trying to avoid).
April 14: CBS and Fox release new matchups.
• Sanders undefeated 6-0 against GOP.
• Sanders outperforms Clinton by nearly 10 points (avg).
• Clinton weak: loses twice to Kasich, virtually ties with Cruz.
Data source: RealClearPolitics.com
April 14, 2016 — In the CBS News national voter survey released today, Clinton holds a 6-point edge over Sanders for the Democratic nomination. However, this poll's margin of error is... 6 points.
A similar survey by Fox News, also released today, shows Clinton in a statistical dead heat with Sanders. She edges him by 2 points — but the margin of error is 4.5 points.
From there, the news gets worse for Clinton.
In a related poll released the same day, CBS News queried voters about November matchups.
• Against Trump, Sanders outperformed Clinton by 7 points.
• Against Cruz, Sanders performed 9 points better than Clinton.
• Against Kasich, Sanders again outperformed Clinton, this time by 11 points.
That's not the whole story. In one of the Cruz matchups, Clinton edged out God's gift to Texas Christians by only 3 points, same as this survey's margin of error. It means Clinton managed only a virtual dead heat against Cruz.
Sanders, however, trounced Cruz in this poll by 12 points.
In the same poll, Clinton LOSES to Kasich by 6 points. Sanders beats him by 5 points.
FOX NEWS — POLL RELEASED 4/14/16
Fox's matchups released today paint a similar picture — except here, Clinton loses to Kasich by 9 points. (Sanders again beats him.)
Clinton edges Cruz by just 1 point. Margin of error? 3 points. Another statistical tie for Clinton.
WHAT IT MEANS
Danger for Dems: the Clinton electability meme is a fantasy Democrats can no longer afford. Sanders consistently proves himself the strongest candidate against all GOP contenders. Meanwhile dozens of March-April matchups vs the GOP prove Clinton to be a liability.
If primary voters are foolhardy enough to nominate Clinton, Democrats could be in serious trouble against Cruz or Kasich in November.
Conclusion: Sanders is by far the only safe bet against the GOP.
Well-meaning primary voters can breathe a sigh of relief: they don't have to hold their nose and vote for Clinton. They can vote for Sanders with a clear conscience — secure in knowing he is not only the best candidate, but the most electable one as well.
It makes today a good day for voters of conscience, for Sanders, and for America.
APRIL 8, 2016 — For the first time this month, Clinton's performance against GOP candidates exceeded Sanders'. It happened in New York, where she served as US Senator for eight years and has close ties to Wall Street billionaires and hedge fund managers.
In a New York poll conducted by Emerson College, just released, Sanders beat both Trump and Cruz by wide margins, but Clinton's margins were slightly wider, a rarity.
vs TRUMP: Though Trump is another New Yorker, Sanders beat him by 13 points and Clinton by 18 points.
vs CRUZ: Sanders trounced the Texan by 27 points and Clinton by 28 points. Clinton's 1-point performance advantage over Sanders was not significant, however, because the poll's margin of error was 3.3 points.
Context: The ultra-right Texas senator has sneered at New Yorkers in his presidential campaign and this week was booed and heckled out of The Bronx. In addition to being the most hated man in the US Senate — a substantial achievement, given the competition — Cruz may arguably be one of the most hated men in New York.
Where is Kasich? Emerson published a Clinton-vs-Kasich matchup but, unfortunately, not one for Sanders vs Kasich. BernieWorks.com reports matchups only when a poll provides data for both Sanders and Clinton against a given GOP contender.
We call these "paired matchups." We believe they provide the most realistic picture by which to compare the relative performance of Sanders and Clinton against specific GOP candidates in the general election. Apples to apples!