• Two-week tally, May 14-28: Sanders undefeated against Trump.
• Against all odds, Sanders scores 92% winning streak with 1 tie.
• Clinton loses 9 times to Trump, winning barely more than half her matchups.
Setting the stage:
• In early May, GOP contenders quit the GOP race, leaving Trump triumphant.
• Corporate media prematurely anointed Clinton as the presumptive Dem nominee.
• By doing so, pundits and media — Very Serious People — sought to make Sanders irrelevant.
To his credit, Sanders refuses to be, uh, irrelevented.
By now Clinton was supposed to be dominating Trump in matchup polls and Sanders losing steam.
The opposite is true. Clinton is failing and Sanders is whipping the ascendant Trump left and right.
In the past two weeks, May 14-28, Sanders and Clinton faced Trump in 13 voter surveys by NBC, CBS, Fox, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and other organizations. These polls essentially asked voters, "If the race were Sanders vs Trump, who would you pick? What about Clinton vs Trump?"
Sanders beat Trump in 12 of these 13 polls and tied 1. His average victory margin: nearly 10 points.
In electoral terms, his strength and durability is looking more and more like Iron Man.
But Clinton struggled. She lost 5 polls against Trump, winning just 8. That is not acceptable for someone who must lead her party to victory and keep the White House out of GOP hands.
The bad news doesn't end there. Clinton's performance is actually worse than it appears.
NOTE: During the past two weeks Clinton also faced Trump in polls that excluded Sanders. Normally we do not tally such polls because we can't compare Clinton's and Sanders' performance poll by poll, apples to apples. However, we are now going to start making exceptions, sacrificing some comparability to give you a broader picture with more data.
Including polls that ignored Sanders, Clinton faced Trump a total of 22 times in the past two weeks. She lost 9 of these polls, winning 12 and tying 1.
Thus while Sanders had a 92% winning percentage with a 9.5-point average spread, Clinton won only 55% of her polls with an average spread of just 1.6 points, less than the margin of error. Virtual dead heats.
Nearly half of Sanders' polls (6 of 13) had wins in the double digits. The same was true of only about 1/7th of Clinton's polls (3 of 22).
With Clinton's 55% wins, the November race against Trump would amount to a coin toss.
If these performance trends continue, ask yourself: Should Democrats nominate Iron Man Sanders or Coin-Toss Clinton to lock the GOP out of the White House?
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