APRIL 7. 2016 — In a general election poll released today by McClatchy and Marist College, Sanders left Clinton in the dust. He outperformed her by 11 and 12 points against Trump and Cruz respectively. and by 20 points against Kasich. Clinton won only one of the three GOP matchups. She tied with Cruz and lost to Kasich by 9 points.
vs TRUMP: Sanders and Clinton each beat Trump by a respectable margin, but Sanders' victory was double Clinton's. He topped Trump by a resounding 20 point points, she by 9 points.
vs CRUZ: Sanders beat Cruz by 12 points. However, Clinton could do no better than tie, her second tie this week against Cruz.
vs KASICH. Sanders beat Kasich by 11 points. Clinton lost to Kasich for the second time in a week, this time by 9 points.
APRIL 6, 2016 — Sanders again outperformed Clinton against GOP candidates in newly released Pennsylvania matchups against the GOP. Sanders topped Clinton's performance by 5 points vs Trump, 8 points vs Cruz, and 10 points vs Kasich.
Results of this Quinnipiac University voter survey in Pennsylvania:
vs TRUMP: Sanders beat Trump by 8 points. Clinton eked out a 3-point win over Trump, but this poll's margin of error was +/-2.4 points — uncomfortably close to a tie or loss.
vs CRUZ: Pennsylvania voters chose Sanders over Cruz by an 8-point margin, while Clinton managed only a tie against Cruz.
vs KASICH: The GOP candidate beat both Sanders and Clinton — topping Sanders by 6 points and Clinton by a whopping 16 points.
With Clinton's dismal performance against all three GOP candidates, it was not a good day for her in Pennsylvania.
Sanders did better, outperforming her in all three GOP matchups — even in the loss to Kasich.
Rightwing wrecking ball and Christian ayatollah Ted Cruz took the April 5 Wisconsin primary, capturing nearly half the GOP vote.
With Trump fast becoming his own worst enemy, Cruz could be heir apparent.
That's not an electoral problem if Sanders wins the Democratic nomination. Sanders performed well against Cruz in voter surveys released April 4.
In a Wisconsin survey by Emerson College, voters chose Sanders over Cruz by a 9-point margin. Meanwhile, Investors Business Daily conducted a general election survey. In IBD's poll, Sanders beat Cruz by 12 points.
Clinton? She edged Cruz by 3 points in Emerson's poll. This survey's margin of error was +/-2.8 points. Essentially, then, Clinton struggled to a statistical dead heat against Cruz. A tossup.
In the IBD poll, Clinton beat Cruz by 5 points, but the margin of error was +/-5.1 points, so all she got was another statistical dead heat. Another coin toss.
How comfortable does that make you feel about Clinton as our nominee if Ted Cruz gets the GOP nod?
Are you willing to bet the US presidency, bank corruption, economic policy and the next Supreme Court picks on a coin toss?
APRIL 4, 2016 — In voter surveys released April 4, Sanders extended his massive winning streak in eight new matchups against Trump, Cruz and Kasich, outperforming Clinton by 4 to 10 points in these matchups. In the new poll results, Sanders was undefeated against the GOP. However, Clinton was not, a worrisome sign of electoral weakness.
Data source: RealClearPolitics.com
Sanders vs GOP: 8 wins, 0 losses. Avg. margin over GOP: 20 points (11 excluding California).
Clinton vs GOP: 7 wins, 1 loss. Avg. margin over GOP: 13 points (4 excluding California).
Sanders outperformed Clinton in all eight matchups. In these individual matchups vs GOP candidates, he exceeded her by 4 to 10 points.
On average, Sanders outperformed Clinton by 7 points, whether or not we set aside the Dem candidates' respective California landslides in the GOP matchups.
If Sanders outperformed Clinton by 7 points with or without California, why bother making the California distinction? Glad you asked!
The anomalous California results could lull voters into a false sense of security about Clinton.
With California included, Sanders had a 20-point average lead over the GOP in the new matchups, while Clinton had a comparable 13-point average lead. Still good. No worries!
Not so fast. Set aside California's gratifying anomaly and an alarming picture snaps into focus.
Without California, the remaining matchups still give Sanders a solid 11-point average lead over GOP candidates. But Clinton? Without the anomaly, her average lead shrinks to 4 points.
What's more, in Clinton's loss against the GOP, Kasich beat her by 7 points.
Given what's at stake in November, Clinton's thin 4-point average margin in the new GOP matchups is deeply worrying.
Voters can no longer afford the fantasy that Clinton is somehow more electable. Her consistently weaker performance in matchups against the GOP make her a liability. A big one.
"Hold my nose and vote for Hillary" people urgently need to accept the truth: Sanders' consistent performance against the GOP makes him by far the stronger candidate.
BernieWorks.com launched with data from 100 matchups between Democratic and GOP presidential candidates. Our source: RealClearPolitics.com, which aggregates poll results.
We extracted matchups from voter surveys published there between the last day of February and the last day of March, 2016. On our Data page you can view the pollsters and their findings.
We included every poll that pitted both Sanders and Clinton against at least one GOP candidate. We call these "paired matchups."
The paired Sanders and Clinton results came from same survey, polled on the same day(s), conducted by the same pollster, in the same locale(s), using the same methodology and demographic sampling.
Thus our 100 results consist of 50 matched pairs. (The round numbers were coincidental.)
Every result you see on this site meets our "paired matchup" standard. We believe it's the most even-handed way to compare Sanders' and Clinton's likely electoral performance against GOP candidates.
We keep in mind that polls can be wildly inaccurate. What, then, was the point of this study?
1. Reliable or not, many people pay attention to poll results. During our March 2016 study period a new poll was published an average of once every couple of days. There must be an audience for these voter surveys, or pollsters would not invest substantial time and money in them.
2. We are not looking at individual poll results but seeking patterns in 50 matched pairs. If there is any reality to be discovered, it's in a consistent pattern among paired matchups.
3. Yes, we sought (and found) results that aligned with our hopes. We do want to see Bernie Sanders inaugurated as the next President of the United States on January 20, 2017. We celebrate his progressive policies and admire his integrity and 30-year record. We believe he will brook no nonsense with plutocrats and will do what he can for ordinary folks.
That is why we were especially thrilled at the pattern we found in the data. Beyond Sanders being the nation's best leader, this pattern says he is also the most electable.
Before launching this study, we knew Sanders was outperforming Clinton in poll matchups against the GOP. Robert Reich pointed it out in a January 2016 video. But we were amazed by the strength of Sanders' consistent performance in these matchups. We were also surprised at Clinton's relative weakness.
If Trump gets the GOP nomination — far from a given at this early-April point — the evidence indicates Clinton would defeat him but by a less commanding margin than would Sanders.
But if Cruz or Kasich get the GOP nod, Clinton could be in trouble. That's what the March polling pattern shows. Clinton failed to win a third of her 50 matchups.
This means Clinton is a liability. With the stakes so high, It's a risk we cannot afford.
Sanders, by contrast, won 90 percent of his matchups and often by wider margins than Clinton. The few matchups he did lose were by smaller margins than those of Clinton.
So there you have it: we're partisans who sought to paint a fair picture of reality (such as it may be), and were fortunate enough to discover a remarkably favorable outcome.
If you live in an upcoming primary state, please get out and vote for Sanders. He's not only the best candidate, but also the most electable.
The evidence speaks loud and clear: Sanders is our safest bet against the GOP.