• Two-week tally, May 14-28: Sanders undefeated against Trump.
• Against all odds, Sanders scores 92% winning streak with 1 tie.
• Clinton loses 9 times to Trump, winning barely more than half her matchups.
Setting the stage:
• In early May, GOP contenders quit the GOP race, leaving Trump triumphant.
• Corporate media prematurely anointed Clinton as the presumptive Dem nominee.
• By doing so, pundits and media — Very Serious People — sought to make Sanders irrelevant.
To his credit, Sanders refuses to be, uh, irrelevented.
By now Clinton was supposed to be dominating Trump in matchup polls and Sanders losing steam.
The opposite is true. Clinton is failing and Sanders is whipping the ascendant Trump left and right.
In the past two weeks, May 14-28, Sanders and Clinton faced Trump in 13 voter surveys by NBC, CBS, Fox, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and other organizations. These polls essentially asked voters, "If the race were Sanders vs Trump, who would you pick? What about Clinton vs Trump?"
Sanders beat Trump in 12 of these 13 polls and tied 1. His average victory margin: nearly 10 points.
In electoral terms, his strength and durability is looking more and more like Iron Man.
But Clinton struggled. She lost 5 polls against Trump, winning just 8. That is not acceptable for someone who must lead her party to victory and keep the White House out of GOP hands.
The bad news doesn't end there. Clinton's performance is actually worse than it appears.
NOTE: During the past two weeks Clinton also faced Trump in polls that excluded Sanders. Normally we do not tally such polls because we can't compare Clinton's and Sanders' performance poll by poll, apples to apples. However, we are now going to start making exceptions, sacrificing some comparability to give you a broader picture with more data.
Including polls that ignored Sanders, Clinton faced Trump a total of 22 times in the past two weeks. She lost 9 of these polls, winning 12 and tying 1.
Thus while Sanders had a 92% winning percentage with a 9.5-point average spread, Clinton won only 55% of her polls with an average spread of just 1.6 points, less than the margin of error. Virtual dead heats.
Nearly half of Sanders' polls (6 of 13) had wins in the double digits. The same was true of only about 1/7th of Clinton's polls (3 of 22).
With Clinton's 55% wins, the November race against Trump would amount to a coin toss.
If these performance trends continue, ask yourself: Should Democrats nominate Iron Man Sanders or Coin-Toss Clinton to lock the GOP out of the White House?
• Ten-day tally of matchup polls: Sanders wins big, Clinton loses big.
• Sanders wins 11 against Trump, loses 1.
• Clinton wins 6 against Trump, loses 6.
Data source: RealClearPolitics.com
It's time for Dems, especially superdelegates, to switch to the winningest candidate against the GOP. That would be Sanders.
In the past ten days, 5/10 to today (5/19), pollsters have published results of a dozen "paired matchups" between Sanders and Trump and, in the same polls, between Clinton and Trump.
Sanders continues his strong performance against the GOP, winning more than 90 percent of the time — consistent with his aggregate results over the past 2-3 months.
Clinton is now doing even worse than her mediocre long-term performance against the GOP. In the past ten days she lost half the time, scoring 6 wins, 6 losses. 50-50, just like a coin toss.
That's why we now call the prematurely presumptive Dem nominee "Coin-Toss Clinton." But it's actually worse than it looks.
Voter surveys typically have a margin of error between 2% and 4%. Yet some matchups are won or lost by a single percentage point. Thus we sometimes take a second look at tallies, counting any 1-point margins as "virtual ties."
Recounting the past ten days, Sanders had 10 clear wins, 1 loss and 1 virtual tie in which he won a matchup by a single point.
Clinton had 4 clear wins plus 6 losses and 2 virtual ties. By this counting, Clinton failed to win a shocking two-thirds of her matchup polls against Trump — 'way below coin-toss territory.
Someone will have to explain why the Dems seem bent on nominating such a consistent loser when there's a winning candidate who has 30+ years of government leadership experience, acts like an adult, and holds consistent policy positions.
A word about those consistent positions: Sanders' positions don't flip every few years because (a) they're guided by his strong moral compass, b) they're backed by his integrity, and (c) Sanders relentlessly supports the public interest and justice for ordinary folks. These things don't change.
Is Sanders perfect? Of course not. But no one else comes remotely close to his quality as a leader.
That is why this no-nonsense 74-year-old guy attracts crowds of 10, 20, 30,000 people who go absolutely nuts for his authenticity and his commonsense public-interest policies — which they crave and cannot find in any other major candidate.
• Over 500 Dem superdelegates have prematurely declared for Clinton.
• Superdelegates can switch. Fairness won't prompt them, but fear might — fear of losing.
• Action needed: Show overwhelming evidence that only Sanders can beat Trump.
Progressive advocates protest rules that give "superdelegates" undemocratic power over the Dem nominating process.
Sanders folks cry foul, and they're right. Democratic Party rules are rigged to let party insiders control the nomination.
"I don't care who does the electing, so long as I get to do the nominating."
Meanwhile, Sanders supporters urge the Dems to assign superdelegates proportional to his wins in 19 states (and counting). While fair and rational, this appeal will go nowhere. Most superdelegates likely feel it's their duty to support Clinton, the 'presumptive' nominee.
So, what might penetrate the "Hillary bubble" surrounding these superdelegates, the Party faithful? What might drive a wedge? Pry open their minds just a crack to consider a different possibility?
The answer: FEAR.
Fear of losing in November. No one wants to be responsible for losing the White House in 2016. It's the FUD factor: fear, uncertainty, doubt.
So how do we inject fear? Uncertainty? Doubt? We use evidence. We spotlight results of dozens upon dozens of voter surveys that pit Sanders against Trump and Clinton against Trump.
Taken together, this consistent evidence reveals in starkest terms how strong Sanders is — and how frighteningly weak Clinton is against the GOP.
Before other GOP contenders quit, Sanders outperformed Clinton against all of them. Without exception. You'll find aggregated data at BernieWorks.com.
One more thing. While Clinton is performing poorly against Trump, she did even worse against the other GOP crazies.
Thus superdelegates must ask themselves:
Can the Party afford a candidate whose performance against the GOP amounts to a coin toss?
Are we willing to bet the Party and the White House on a coin toss?
How frightening is that? How much risk must we tolerate and uncertainty must we bear to keep blindly supporting a failed leader?
Is supporting "Coin-Toss Clinton" a bridge too far?
...Especially when there's a stronger, straight-up candidate who's beating Trump left and right — and winning hearts and minds like no one else.
All 500+ superdelegates who have prematurely declared for Clinton now face this agonizing question. It's something to lose sleep over.
We hope that fear, uncertainty and doubt haunt their troubled dreams...until they do the smart thing, the safe thing, and switch to Sanders.
*We tally matchup polls published at RealClearPolitics.com — all the polls that match up both Sanders and Clinton against the GOP. This method helps ensure a meaningful comparison of electoral strength, i.e., "electability." Wins, losses and point spreads were recorded for each candidate in a given poll, using the same sampling, surveying the same voters and asking the same questions in the same span of days. In other words, apples to apples.
In 12 matchups against Trump published so far in May (5/1 - 5/15):
• Sanders beat Trump 9 times and lost 3. Winning percentage: 75%.
• Clinton beat Trump 7 times, lost 5. Winning percentage: 58%.
Data source: RealClearPolitics.com
Some matchups were won or lost by just 1 point. If we call these "virtual ties," then:
• Sanders beat Trump 9 times, lost 2 and had 1 virtual tie — winning 75%.
• Clinton beat Trump 5 times, lost 5 and had 2 virtual ties — winning 42%.
Sanders' performance in these May matchups is remarkable. Consider: Trump is his party's presumptive nominee, while Sanders has been written off by establishment Dems and corporate media.
Against these ridiculous odds, voters still choose Sanders over Trump 3 times out of 4 — earning Sanders the "hooray" in our headline.
Contrast Sanders' buoyant performance to that of the Dems' prematurely presumptive nominee, Hillary Clinton.
By now, Clinton should be whipping Trump in every matchup poll. Isn't that why voters picked her in primary races — to stop GOP crazies from gaining the White House? That is why many people said, "I like Bernie, but I'm going to hold my nose and vote for Hillary — because she's more electable."
Well, how's that workin' out for ya?
With the best of intentions, these primary voters picked the weaker candidate. How weak? How about a winning record of 58% so far this month against Trump? Or 42% if we ignore 1-point "virtual ties"? Is that weak enough for you?
We do understand: with the best of intentions, voters can make mistakes. But this one's a doozy.
The stakes are staggeringly high. The Dems must lock out Trump and defeat the GOP.
Clinton's consistently dismal numbers against the GOP for the past 2-3 months — totaling well over 100 matchups tallied here at BernieWorks.com — clearly show that she is the wrong person for this mission.
And now, Clinton's May numbers against Trump go from "dismal" to "frightening."
There's a longshot chance of correcting this disastrous choice. Voters in the eight remaining primary states plus D.C. could keep Clinton from having a lock on the nomination before the Dem convention.
It would take a massive pro-Sanders vote — improbable but not impossible if everyone were to realize how weak a candidate Clinton really is. And how remarkably strong Sanders has proven to be, even now.
Thanks to Sanders, no one needs to hold their nose and vote for an establishment candidate they don't like. They can vote for the one they like and admire — who also is the strongest contender and the safest bet to beat the GOP.
So if you know anyone who lives in an upcoming primary state, please do your part. Let them know the truth. Refer them to the overwhelming evidence on this site or elsewhere. They don't have to hold their nose.
You'll be doing a great thing for your family and our nation.
• Sanders wins 80% of his matchups vs GOP over the past 30 days.
• Clinton wins just 49% of her matchups – in same polls, during the same period.
• Sanders' average point spread: 11.5 points. Clinton's? 4.9 points.
Data source: RealClearPolitics.com
Disaster for Dems:
Many well-meaning voters still don't see that Sanders is much stronger than Clinton versus the GOP. Unless they see the truth, many will hold their nose and vote for Clinton in remaining primaries, believing she is more electable.
It's up to you to show them the truth. It's an enormous responsibility. You didn't ask for it, but it falls to you anyway.
People's disastrously false belief about electability places a hundred million US families at risk of suffering years more crony capitalism. You can help change that by relentlessly spreading the truth over the next three weeks of remaining primaries.
• In the past 30 days, since April 13, major polls have matched up Sanders against GOP contenders 51 times.*
• Sanders beat his GOP opponents in 41 of these matchups (= 80%). He lost only 4 times.
• The remaining 6 were statistical dead heats, meaning the outcome was smaller than the poll's margin of error.
• In the same period – in the same polls, which queried the same voters – Clinton faced her GOP opponents 51 times.
• Clinton won only 49 percent of her matchups — a shocking performance when the US presidency hangs in the balance.
• Clinton managed a clear win in only 25 of 51 matchups. She lost 17 times outright, a full third of her matchups — a frightening outcome.
• In the remaining 9 matchups, she managed a statistical dead heat, essentially tying her opponent.
Remarkably, Sanders continues to outperform Clinton in matchups against the GOP as recently as this week — even after mainstream media anointed Clinton "the presumptive nominee." This alone shows incredible electoral strength, far beyond what anyone might expect.
Please get the word out. The more people in upcoming primary states who know the truth, the more momentum Sanders and the progressive revolution will have going into the Dem convention. Thank you.
Upcoming primary states:
5/17 — Kentucky, Oregon
6/7 — California, New Jersey, Montana, New Mexico, North and South Dakota
6/14 — Washington D.C.
*Polling organizations included Cruz and Kasich until they quit their respective races. We think their matchups are still relevant (a) as an overall indicator of Sanders' and Clinton's relative electoral strength, and (b) as a backup in case Trump somehow fails to get the GOP nod (which his party is desperately trying to avoid).